The TCTP is a statistical forecast parameter that calculates the percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of each RAP
model grid point. Multinomial Logistic Regression was used to derive the TCTP which uses information about tropical
cyclone locations as well as shear and instability parameters from the RAP to determine tornado percentages.
The TCTP is run every 3 hours provided one or more tropical cyclones exist in or near the RAP model domain. Use the drop down menu on
the previous page to select a model run. The current forecasts will overwrite previous runs so that the most recent forecasts are available.
See Onderlinde and Fuelberg (2014) for more info: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00086.1